The U.S. retail sector could take years to recover from the impact of the coronavirus, according to eMarketer’s latest forecast on U.S retail sales (which includes auto and fuel). Total retail sales are anticipated to drop by 10.5% this year, which would be steeper than the 8.2% drop in 2009. Ecommerce is a bright spot, jumping 18% this year, as Americans hasten their shift to Amazon, Walmart.com other online retailers.
These estimates assume that widespread social distancing measures, which have gradually been lifted in May, will continue to ease and economic activity slowly resumes in Q3. However, consumer spending will likely remain dampened throughout the year. Total retail sales won’t rebound to 2019 levels until 2022, eMarketer predicted, and estimates throughout the forecast period will be lower than previously predicted.
“This is the sharpest consumer spending freeze in decades in the U.S.,” said eMarketer senior forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence Cindy Liu. “In just a couple weeks, as Americans sheltered in place, retail sales fell dramatically in March. With sales hitting their lowest point of the year in Q2, it will take years before consumer activity returns to normal levels.”
Every category will see a drop in sales except for food and beverage and health and beauty, according to the projections.
Source: eMarketer
