Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to drop to nearly its lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic this month, according to the Global Port Tracker report released this week by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“With the U.S. economy slowing and consumers worried by rising interest rates and still-high inflation, retailers are importing less merchandise,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “February is traditionally a slow month, but these are the lowest numbers we’ve seen in almost three years. Retailers are being cautious as they wait to see how the economy responds to efforts to bring inflation under control.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.73 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in December, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 2.6 percent from November and down 17.1 percent from December 2021. That brought 2022 – which broke multiple monthly records in the first half of the year but saw significant drops in the second half – to an annual total of 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2 percent from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
“In some ways, 2023 is reminiscent of 2020, when the world’s economies shut down because of the pandemic and no one had a clue where we were headed,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Cargo volumes are down, and the economy is in a contradiction of rising employment and wages that promise prosperity at the same time high inflation and rising interest rates threaten a recession. The economy is far from shut down, but the degree of uncertainty is very similar.”
Ports have not yet reported January numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.78 million TEU, down 17.6 percent year over year. February is forecast at 1.57 million TEU, down 25.6 percent from the same month last year for the slowest month since 1.53 million TEU in May 2020, when the pandemic closed many factories in Asia and most U.S. stores. Since the beginning of the pandemic, only the 1.51 million TEU recorded in February 2020 and 1.37 million TEU in March 2020 have been lower.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling 202.783.7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.
