Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to climb toward an August peak, according to the Global Port Tracker report released Friday by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. But even though a tentative contract agreement has been reached at West Coast ports, retailers are following labor disputes at ports in Western Canada and a potential Teamsters strike against United Parcel Service.
“We were relieved that labor and management at West Coast ports reached a tentative agreement last month, but that doesn’t mean supply chain disruptions are over,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The port strike affecting Vancouver and Prince Rupert shouldn’t have a major impact here but could affect some U.S. retailers whose merchandise comes in through Canada and could have a potential ripple effect at other ports.
“Meanwhile, the ability to move goods from U.S. ports to stores could be impacted if UPS and the Teamsters don’t resolve their differences before their contract expires at the end of the month,” Gold continued. “We urge all parties in both negotiations to get back to the table and continue efforts to reach a final deal without engaging in disruptive activity. Seamless supply chains are critical for retailers as we head into the peak shipping season for the winter holidays.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted that first-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised upward to 2 percent, consumer demand is stable, and consumers have continued to spend, while retailers and wholesalers have reduced their inventories.
“These numbers together point toward another quarter of economic growth, which should confirm that the prospect of a recession is looking less likely,” Hacket said.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.93 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in May, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 8.5 percent from April but down 19.3 percent year over year.
Ports have not yet reported June numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.86 million TEU, down 17.5 percent year over year. That would bring the first half of 2023 to 10.6 million TEU, down 22 percent from the first half of 2022.
July is forecast at 1.94 million TEU, down 11 percent year over year, and August is forecast at 2.03 million TEU, down 10.1 percent year over year. However, it will be the first month since last October to reach 2 million TEU.
Global Port Tracker has not yet forecast the full year, but the third quarter is expected to total 5.9 million TEU, down 8.3 percent from last year, and the first nine months of the year should total 16.5 million TEU, down 17.6 percent year over year.
Canada’s Vancouver and Prince Rupert aren’t included in those totals and not all of their cargo comes to the United States, but the two ports handled more than 185,000 TEU in May. That accounted for approximately nine percent of combined U.S.-Canadian container imports at ports covered by the full Global Port Tracker report.
For more information, go to nrf.com or www.hackettassociates.com
