The International Council of Shopping Centers is forecasting a 3.4% sales increase, slightly stronger than last year, for the traditional November-December holiday period, even though retailers are expecting a more modest spending season. Additionally, ICSC anticipates that the other two measures of U.S. industry holiday sales – shopping-center inclined sales +3.4%, and chain-store sales +2.0 – will both increase over last year
|
Metrics |
2013 Forecast
|
Reasons
|
2012 Actual
|
2011 Actual
|
Data Notes
|
|
GAFO
|
+3.4% |
Less price discounting (GAFO prices off 1.1% in 2012 season, expected down about 0.5%) with lean inventories, lessened drag from economy and policy issues, continued improvement from wealth effects (housing and stock market) and strong online spending (+13.0% gain from electronic shopping and mail order sales) |
+3.0% |
+4.0% |
Based on U.S. Census data, November-December period, GAFO store sales. |
|
Shopping Center Inclined
|
+3.4% |
+2.7% |
+4.2% |
ICSC aggregate based on U.S. Census data for shopping-center industry sales. |
|
|
Chain-Store Sales |
+2.0% |
+1.3%
|
+2.8% |
ICSC tally of about 125 retailers’ quarterly comp-store sales (which include online spending generally). |
While the industry and the U.S. economy have gone through a mini-cycle slowdown the last three quarters, there are indicators of positive growth this season, despite retailer’s mixed outlook, says the council.
“We’re going to see a more subdued spending mood from consumers, but what counts is that we’re on track to have a better holiday sales season that last year,” said Michael P. Niemira, vice president of research and chief economist for ICSC. “With leaner inventories, retailers can expect their prices and margins to remain stable, which is another good indicator of stronger sales.”
Additionally, holiday hiring is highly correlated with holiday spending and can also forecast a stronger sales performance. It appears that holiday hiring will be up 0.5% from last year, says ICSC.
