InsideOutdoor | SPRING/SUMMER 2023 14 Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports began showing signs earlier this year that it is climbing back from a nearly three-year low in February. Still, it is expected to remain below last year’s levels heading into this fall, according to the Global Port Tracker report released in May by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. “Consumers are still spending, and retail sales are expected to increase this year, but we’re not seeing the explosive demand we saw the past two years,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in an NRF release distributed last month. “Congestion at the ports has largely gone away as import levels have fallen, but other supply chain challenges remain, ranging from trucker shortages to getting empty containers back to terminals,” Gold explained. He added the NRF is pleased by reports of progress related to the West Coast port labor negotiations but will continue to monitor the situation until a new agreement is ratified by both parties.” In April, after nearly a year of negotiations, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and port management’s Pacific Maritime Association reached a tentative agreement on what the union said were “key issues,” and that comment offered hope that an end may be near. The union in its April statement said talks will continue until a full agreement has been reached. Among the issues are terms for maintenance of 22,000 ILWU workers’ health care plans and a dispute between two unions on jurisdictional issues at the Port of Seattle over assignment of work. Amid the negotiations, port container volumes have dropped at all of the West Coast facilities. The declines are believed to be the result of the international and U.S. economies finding their equilibrium after three year of the COVID-19 pandemic and not the labor disputes. “With economic uncertainty continuing, the impact on trade is clear,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said, noting high inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and recent bank failures. “Year-over-year import volumes have been on the decline at most ports since late last year and declining exports out of China highlight the slowdown in demand for consumer goods,”Hacket explained. “Our forecast now projects a larger decline in imports in the first half of this year than we forecast last month. Our view is that imports will remain below recent levels until inflation rates and inventory surpluses are reduced.” U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.62 million twentyfoot equivalent units (TEU) – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in March. That was up 5 percent from February – which saw the lowest levels since May 2020 – but down 30.6 percent year over year. Global Port Tracker projected April at 1.73 million TEU, down 23.4 percent year over year. May was forecast at 1.83 million TEU, down 23.5 percent from last year’s 2.4 million TEU, the all-time record for the number of containers imported during a single month. June is forecast at 1.9 million TEU, down 15.9 percent; July at 2.01 million TEU, down 7.9 percent; August at 2.04 million TEU, down 9.9 percent, and September at 1.96 million TEU, down 3.4 percent. It’s important to note the large yearover-year declines are skewed by unusually high volumes in 2022. The first half of 2023 – previously forecast at 10.8 million TEU – is now forecast at 10.4 million TEU, down 22.8 percent from the first half of 2022. Global Port Tracker has not yet forecast the full year, but the third quarter is expected to total 6 million TEU, down 7.2 percent from the same time last year, and the first nine months of the year would total 16.5 million TEU, down 17.8 percent year over year. Imports for all of 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2 percent from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021. In the meantime, NRF said that despite the imports slow down and the continued negative economic news, retail sales continues to surprise. Retail sales bounced back in April, showing month-over-month and yearover-year growth. “Retail sales rebounded in April, reflecting consumer resilience in the face of elevated economic uncertainty,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Moderating price levels, continued labor market strength and wage gains have increased consumers’ ability to spend. However, they remain cautious and concerned about the current economic environment. Retailers continue to provide competitive pricing and convenience to help cost-sensitive consumers stretch their budgets.” NRF’s Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz added, “Consumers remained engaged in April, Shoppers are being selective and price-sensitive, but we continue to expect that spending will see modest gains through the course of the year.Year-over-year growth slowed, which was partly because of upward revisions to last year’s data but also an early indication that credit conditions are tightening and excess savings are shrinking.” NRF’s calculation of retail sales – which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – showed April was up 0.6 percent from March and up 2 percent unadjusted year over year. m Mixed Signals Imports Remain Below 2022; Retail Sales Bounce Back By Bruce Christian
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