17 InsideOutdoor | SUMMER 2022 It’s safe to expect a continued acceleration toward digital channels, which received a boost when stores were forced to shut down and/or access was limited. It’s also quite likely shopper expectations have increased now that they’ve experienced the impressive accommodations and adjustments retailers made due to the unprecedented circumstances of the pandemic. And it’s safe to assume that higher costs for gas and groceries will forces consumer to be more discerning with their dollars than in the recent past. According to eMarketer, for instance, 84 percent of shoppers expect to see higher prices heading into the fall, with more than four in 10 back-to-school shoppers planning to do more comparative shopping online or shop for sales more often. But in some ways, shopper behavior is simultaneously being pulled in completely opposite directions by current trends, headlines and economic conditions. While at the same time, the journey from discovery through purchase (and onto post-purchase) appears to be getting increasingly sophisticated, shopper surveys suggest. On the one hand, shoppers could be feeling pressure to spend early and buy quickly. Certainly, inventory levels have greatly improved since the peak of the pandemic, with U.S. Census Bureau figures from earlier this year showing retail inventories at their highest levels since March 2018. NPD Group’s analysis of specialty retail channels, meanwhile, found that inventory levels as of April 2022, were 44 percent higher than they were pre-pandemic in 2019. Even so, recent supply chain struggles, labor shortages and delivery delays experienced during the past two years are still bouncing around in consumers’ memories, and many shoppers across the country regularly encounter open spaces on grocery shelves that historically are filled with options. In turn, shoppers may be inclined to start their shopping even earlier than in the past and quickly pull the trigger on a purchase before that product is unavailable. “Concerns about items being out-of-stock are continuing to drive consumers to shop earlier than ever, with 29 percent saying inventory concerns have caused them to shop for items at least a month before they need it,” said researchers at Quantum Metric, a provider of customer experience data analytics. That goes not only for dorm room supplies and Christmas gifts, “but for everything from Easter candy to Mother’s Day cards,” continued Quantum Metric, in its recent BTS retail benchmark report. “For back-to-school items, consumers are buying even earlier. In fact, 41 percent have either already started or plan to start before this school year even wraps,” the report continued. “Comparing traditional K-12 shoppers to college shoppers, we see that those looking for college essentials are more likely to start earlier.” As of early July, more than half (56 percent) of shoppers had started shopping for school and college supplies, according to the National Retail Federation. The pressure to purchase also is reflected in conversion rates, said Quantum Metric, which were consistently higher around last year’s holiday shopping season compared to the year before. YOY Shopping Season Estimates, $ Billions 2021 % Change 2022 % Change Retail BTS season sales $67.01 14.3% $67.46 0.7% E-commerce BTS season sales $26.39 10.2% $28.19 6.8% Overall holiday sales $1,221.82 16.1% $1,262.14 3.3% E-commerce holiday sales $204.20 10.4% $235.86 15.5% M-commerce holiday sales $93.73 14.6% $112.03 19.5% Source: Insider Intelligence; eMarketer
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