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18 Inside Outdoor | FALL 2020 One indication of the transfer of dol- lars that took place due to COVID-19, U.S. shoppers spent more online in April and May of this year ($153 bil- lion) than they did during November and December of 2019 ($142.5), ac- cording to analysis by Adobe. The recorded online spending was $52 bil- lion more than what retailers typically see during April and May. “We expect ecommerce to retain this increased share of the retail mar- ket after lockdowns are lifted,” said Nina Goetzen, eMarketer junior ana- lyst. “The pandemic has only acceler- ated an ongoing shift to the channel.” “It is tempting to chalk this up to a temporary impact of the pandemic,” agreed Simeon Hyman, global invest- ment strategist at ProShares, “but there are signs that this pandemic is accelerating existing long-term trends and furthering opportunities for e- commerce growth.” One glaring example, said Hyman, e-commerce food and beverage sales increased more than 100 percent from the first quarter, and more than 220 percent over the second quarter of last year. Given that half of mer- chants (52 percent) recently surveyed by Paypal are still unsure whether consumers will use fitting rooms to try on clothes, nearly forty percent are offering virtual alternatives. This includes online fit or sizing tools (26 percent), virtual showrooms (23 per- cent) and virtual stylists (23 percent). Analysis by Salesforce, mean- while, found that orders through social channels were up 104 percent for the second quarter, and revenue at BOPIS-related sites was up 127 percent. And by the middle of this summer, only 17 percent of the 17,000 U.S. consumers polled by Shopkick said BOPIS would not be part of their holiday shopping. More than four in 10 said BOPIS would be. “Black Friday lines won’t disap- pear, but we expect lines of consum- ers waiting for store openings will be replaced by long queues of cars eagerly waiting for buy online, pickup curbside purchases to be placed in their vehicles,” said Stephen Baker, vice president, industry advisor for The NPD Group. Most years, including in 2019, low prices are the most important incen- tive for holiday shoppers, “but with more shopping online this year,” said Shopkick researchers, “the majority of consumers (54 percent) are most incentivized by free shipping.” Just less than a quarter now believe low prices is most important. All told, analysts for Saleforce predict online sales will account for 30 percent or more of total holiday spending in 2020. That would be about double the percentage of online spending (non-gas and non- grocery) tallied by Salesforce in holiday 2019. Folks won’t just be buying online, either. Even larger than the growth in dollars spent will be the increase in search and discovery time taking place in digital spaces. Whether a transaction is home delivery or BO- PIS or “see online, grab my mask and get in and get out” or even “see what’s out there but still browse the store aisles,” a large chunk of trans- actions start with digital discovery (the younger, the more on mobile). In turn, we can expect to see acceler- ated growth in the use among retail- ers of digital and social channels for marketing and customer acquisition. Some popular themes expected to proliferate in holiday 2020 marketing include gift suggestions; safety mea- sure taken to keep stores virus-free; the availability of curbside, BOPIS, appointment shopping and other low- contact or no contact buying meth- ods; and the comfort of familiar holi- day traditions during disruptive times. “Overcommunication matters so much right now,” said Brendan Witch- er, vice president and principal ana- lyst at Forrester Research. “If you’ve got customer testimonials about how [BOPIS and curbside] options have helped them out … overemphasize how you’ve made the world safer for your consumers.”  Down the Chimney After customer attention is gained, and shopping carts not abandoned, it’s looking highly unlike- ly that supply chain issues initiated by coronavirus-related shutdowns will be normalized in time to sati- ate the coming rush of gift seekers. The National Retail Federation, for example, recently forecast a 9.4 percent decline in total container im- ports for the year, while as recently as August, 91 percent of outdoor companies surveyed by the Outdoor Recreation Roundtable reported  Retailers Believe COVID Is More Than a Transient Concern Top priorities when deciding where to shop in-store How LongWill COVID Be An Issue? % of respondents for whom this criterion is the most important Source: Retail Systems Research, August survey Source: McKinsey & Co.; June 2020 11% Less than 6 months 6-12 months 12-18 months 18-24 months >24 months Pandemics will always b issue 28% 38% 12% 6% 6% Cleaning and sanitization Masks and barriers Physical distancing No-contact purchasing Store regulations Health checks 31% 25% 15% 11% 10% 9% Reason for trying a new brand in the past 3 months % of re ondents selectin reason in t p 3 Source: McKinsey & Co. Availability Convenience Value Quality/organic Health/hygience Purpose-driven Products are in stock Is available where I’m shopping Cleaner/has better hygiene measures To support local businesses Company treats its employees well Better prices/promotions Better value Better shipping/delivery cost Larger package sizes Better quality Is natural/organic 48% 34% 30% 25% 15% 11% 16% 8% 13% 11% 6%