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16 Inside Outdoor | FALL 2020 in the alternate reality of 2019. When all is said and done, retailers should not be surprised to see several years’ worth of growth in online and onmi-channel shopping behaviors squeezed into this one upcoming season. And with retailers and retail supply chains still recovering from shutdowns and the subsequent slow- down in new IT projects, customer demands and expectations could strain current supply chain and ful- fillment capabilities. The end result could be large numbers of holiday customers suddenly up for grabs, as they search for gift ideas. Certainly, if the weather is nice this winter, and stores can safely re- turn to somewhat regular operations, many Americans will be itchy like an old Christmas sweater to get out, browse festive displays and physi- cally celebrate the end of 2020 after nine months when restrictions and cancellations of large gatherings kept them inside and interacting virtually. Unless we take drastic steps back in our battle with COVID-19, the ma- jority of sales once again will occur within the four walls of stores. But as normal cold and flu sea- sons return amid warnings of a “twindemic,” many shoppers still will be reluctant to brave large, possibly crowded public areas. In a large sur- vey of U.S. shoppers this summer by rewards app Shopkick, for example, three quarters (77 percent) of shop- pers said they expect to buy holiday gifts online to avoid crowds and ex- posure. That’s a 16 percent increase from 2019, when 51 percent of shop- pers told Shopkick they expected to make holiday purchases online to avoid crowds. Among respondents to a separate July survey from Qubit, a provider of merchandising and per- sonalization technology, 44 percent said they plan to shop more online during this year’s Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas holidays as compared to last year’s holiday sea- son. Less than 30 percent said they feel comfortable returning to stores, with nearly one in five not expecting to return to stores until 2021. “Our survey data shows that shopper behavior has changed radically since the pandemic spread globally and will continue to look different during the 2020 holiday season,” said Graham Cooke, CEO and founder of Qubit. Indeed, even the thought of kids lining up to sit on Santa’s lap still will be uncomfortable for many come December. “It’ll be interesting to see if stores even have Black Friday sales or are open on Black Friday,” said Randy Hare, portfolio manager at Hunting- ton Private Bank, in a late-August report by Reuters. “I don’t think anybody is going to be open for Thanksgiving, and I think we’re going to see limited store hours throughout the season,” agreed Gabri- ella Santaniello, founder and CEO of retail research firm A Line Partners. At the same time, several ecom- merce shopping behaviors – many of which were already emerging health- ily the past few years – suddenly received a massive push in market momentum. Almost overnight, main- stream awareness was driven toward all sorts of digital, omni-channel and gig-economy-based shopping en- ablers – ranging from the initial search and discovery process all the way to last-mile, third-party fulfillment. According to U.S. Census Bureau reporting on the second quarter of 2020 – the first quarter that felt the impact of the pandemic in its entirety – total retail sales declined 3.9 percent from the first quarter, while e-com- merce sales increased 32 percent. Steps Retailers Are Taking to Add Safety to In-Store Holiday Shopping Taking extra precautions to keep shoppers safe 81% Not hiring extra staff or bringing back previously laid off employees 70% Offer curbside pickup 46% Make masks mandatory 45% Implement social distancing guidelines 45% Increasing online inventory 43% Apparel retailers offering alternatives to fitting rooms (i.e. digital sizing tools) 39% Implementing cashless payment in-store 34% Offer hand sanitizer 34% Make products available to buy on social media app 31% Source: Paypal Retailers Believe COVID Is More Than a Transient Concern How LongWill COVID Be An Issue? Source: Retail Systems Research, August survey 11% Less than 6 months 6-12 months 12-18 months 18-24 months >24 months Pandemics will always be issue 28% 38% 12% 6% 6%